Curriculum placement
Algebra 2. This describes the skill, not a learner estimate.
Checking a chance model by simulation
Simulate a proposed random process and assess consistency with observations
Problem types
- Is the result consistent with the model?
Builds on
- Probability of one event
- Samples and the populations they represent
- A procedure that gives each outcome a fair chance · Earlier idea
A fair procedure gives each outcome the same probability, which is the model that simulated results are compared against.
- Independence and mutual exclusion · Useful idea
A simulation of repeated independent trials is checked against the probabilities the independent model predicts.
- The multiplication rule for probability · Useful idea
A simulation of repeated independent trials is compared with the product of probabilities.
Leads to
- Testing a difference by randomization
- A margin of error from simulated samples
- Association is not causation · See it applied
Simulating random assignment shows how large a difference can arise by chance before a causal claim is made.
Related skills
- A distribution built from frequencies · Related idea
Simulated results form an empirical distribution, and its relative frequencies estimate how often a result as extreme as the observed one arises.
- Checking a model against evidence · Related idea
A model is checked by simulating it and comparing the simulated outcomes with the data.
- Studies, experiments, and samples · Shared foundations
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